Industry Trend & Report
2015 Global Carbon Fiber Composites Market Report ( 1 )
Source:ATA Carbon Fiber Tech., Co., Ltd 2016-09-18
2016-09-18 14:56:43
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原文:http://www.chinacompositesexpo.com/en/news.php?show=detail&c_id=245&news_id=3674
Lin Gang - Vice President
Richard Chi


ATA Carbon Fiber Tech., Co., Ltd
ATA Industrial Group
 

 

 


Contents

 
1. Preface
2. The Global Carbon Fiber Market
2.1. The Global Demand for Carbon Fiber - by year (in thousand tons)
2.2. T he Global Demand for Carbon Fiber – by application (in thousand tons)
2.3. The Global Demand for Carbon Fiber – by application (in $million)
3. The Global Carbon Fiber Supply
3.1. The Global Carbon Fiber Theoretical Capacity – by manufacturer
3.2. The Global Carbon Fiber Theoretical Capacity – by region (in thousand tons)
4. Chinese Carbon Fiber Market
4.1. Chinese Demand for Carbon Fiber - by year
4.2. Chinese Demand for Carbon Fiber – by origin
4.3. Chinese Demand for Carbon Fiber – by province
4.4. Chinese Demand for Carbon Fiber – by application
5. China CF Capacities
5.1. China CF Theoretical Capacities
5.2. China CF industry development
6. Global CF composites market
6.1. Global demand for CRP-by year
6.2. Global CFRP Demand-by cost
6.3. Global CFRP Demand-by application
6.4. Global CFRP Demand-by region (in $Billion)
6.5. Global CFRP Demand-by technique
6.6. Global CFRP Demand-by matrix (in $Billion)
7. Trends of Composites Application and Prospect
7.1. Aerospace & Military
7.2. Sports&Leisure
7.3. Wind Blade
7.4. Molding& Compound
7.5. Automobile  
7.6. Pressure Vessel
7.7. Construction
7.8. Marine
7.9. Other Notable Application
8. Observation and Reflection 
 
 

1. Preface

《2014 Global Carbon Fiber Composites Market Report》, published in February, 2015, received a positive feedback and praise from our colleagues in the carbon fiber industry. I feel honored and obligated to accept their warmest requests to perfect this annual report to be an objective and authoritative reference to the carbon fiber composite industry.
 
I want to especially thank Mr. Thomos Kraus and Mr. Michael Kuhnel, the two new authors of Carbon Composites e.V. (short for CCeV). They took the baton from Mr. Bernhard Jahn. I also want to express my thanks to CCeV for accepting ATA’s suggestion to include the capacity of China leading carbon fiber manufacturers, CCGC and Hengshen, in CCeV 2015 report. As a complement to CCeV’s global Top 10 CF manufacturers list, I hereby include all the other Chinese companies in the chapter of China carbon fiber production capacity.
 
《2014 Global Carbon Fiber Composites Market Report》 was based on the data of 2013 and , which was derived from the author, Mr.TunianShen and Zhaoyu’s (Secretary General of Taiwan CF Association) statistics in 2011. The statistics focused on Sports & Leisure industry which consists of Taiwan and China manufacturing sectors. The elite sales leaders, Mr. XueyinBai and Mr. Yuhang Chen from Hengtian Investment, Mr. Wei Li from CCGC, also provided a great amount of first hand data to us. It helps us conduct the sanity check from both production and demand sides. I sincerely express my thanks to the above mentioned and unmentioned friends for their unselfish help.
 
To draw a clear picture of China carbon fiber market, this new annual report compiled China Customs records with the data we collected previously. It may help the CF manufacturers to build their corporate strategy to compete the market share by promoting their high cost-effective products.
 
The year of 2016 is a significant year for carbon fiber industry. After 10 years of endeavor, some companies have stood out with profitability from the competition, some have gone through resource mergers and acquisitions to achieve a better operational result, some are unsung heroes to produce national strategic materials for China Aerospace and Defense, some are biting the bullet in R&D, and some suffer from huge financial burden… After 10 years of unremitting efforts, we have built up an outstanding devout team which comprises of entrepreneurs and industry elites. We are devoted to develop China CF industry and we are confident on our future.
 
The year of 2016 is a crossroad for carbon fiber industry. The CF applications in aerospace and military sector and the CF applications in automobile and wind blade sector are polarized as “two worlds”. The variety of CF grades only represents the codes for different applications. Industry and the government should change the name of competition game from higher properties to higher profits. Although the luxurious cars have better performance, civilian cars generate more revenue and profits. The low-cost carbon fiber is an important technical direction to uplift the enterprise’s profitability. Having the world class acrylic fiber technology, volume production capacity and the carbon fiber technology accumulated in the past ten years, China can satisfy millions tons of demand in the global CF market. China has the great potential to grow into the world largest industrial carbon fiber production base. Now, what we need is to relentlessly improve the carbonization technology to produce high output and low-cost fiber. The precious opportunity is right in front of us, 
 
Chinese carbon fiber industry, are you ready?

2. The Global Carbon Fiber Market
2.1. The Global Demand for Carbon Fiber - by year (in thousand tons)
 
 
There are some adjustments on annual statistics of CCeV. According to statistics of CCeV, the 2014 data is 53,000 tons; the estimated 2015 data is 58,000 tons. In our statistics, the demand from wind turbines is 4,000 tons more than that of CCeV. The demand from sport & leisure in our statistics is also greater than CCeV. Chinese actual demand for carbon fiber is 16,788 tons (this data is accurate). With reference to the statistics from other institutes and carbon fiber manufacturers, the global demand we calculated is 68,400 tons.
 
In the 2014 report, the estimated average annual global growth rate is 6-8%, a relatively low-key growth rate. The better than expected forecast, especially a robust growth in aerospace, automotive and wind turbines industry boosts the industry growth of 2015. The estimated annual growth rate is 11.2% going forward.
 
We believe it makes more sense to estimate the timing when the demand for carbon fiber will be added up to 100,000 tons. Our estimate is 2019. The estimation is based on the situation that in 2016 the output of large-tow carbon fibers have been bought up by the wind turbines companies. The market is short of large tow fiber at the moment. Besides, the European and American automobile makers, including Ford, have expressed their ambitions to develop the composites in the application of automobile industry.
 
When the capacity increases, the price will go down. It does also apply to the carbon fiber industry. The price for the basic material, acrylonitrile is about RMB 7.0-9.0/kg. After precursor fabrication and carbonization production, the cost will be over RMB 100/kg. There is a lot of cost saving opportunities in this process. From the carbon fiber industry respective, it is technically possible to produce low-cost CF, say RMB 60/kg, as long as there is clear and adequate market demand.
 
2.2. T he Global Demand for Carbon Fiber – by application (in thousand tons)
 
Total amount: 68,400 tons
 
 
 
The estimated data for 2015 is 58,000 tons from the 2015 CCeV report. But in our statistics report, it is 68,400 tons. There are several major differences: (1) Per our statistics, demand from “Wind Turbines” is 12,000 tons, comparing with 8,000 tons in CCeV report. (2) Chinese 9,300 tons and Taiwanese 1,000 tons make up 90% of the global demand for carbon fiber. Therefore, the global demand is 11,500 tons, about 7,000 tons more than that in CCeV report. (3)Our calculation in pressure vessel also has a higher number than CCeV.
 
The segment “Wind Turbines” will push itself slightly ahead of the segment “Aerospace &Defence” in next two years, taking the largest share of carbon fiber demand. The wind turbines companies have bought up all of the 24K and bigger tow carbon fibers from many manufacturers this year, indicating this segment will witness a rapid growth in the near future.
 
It is mentioned in the 2014 report that, thanks to Boeing 787 development, the segment of “Aerospace &Defence” will increase rapidly. Airbus A350 will also drive a strong boost to the aerospace material market. The trend will last until 2018 and slow down after.
2.3. The Global Demand for Carbon Fiber – by application (in $million)
 
Total amount: $ 2,426.2 millions
 
 
This report adopts the unit carbon fiber price in different applications from CCeV. The demand value is adjusted according to the modification of tonnage.
  
  
It is obvious that carbon fiber price is a highest in Aerospace &Defence segment, low in Automotive and Molding & Compound segment, lowest in Wind Turbines segment. The above prices are for qualitative comparative analysis only,  may be different from the actual market prices, for example, SGL fiber selling price in “Automobile” segment is about 15EURO/kg, and ZOLTEK fiber selling price in “Wind Turbines” segment is about $11-12/kg, Mitsubishi large-tow fiber price is $13-14/kg.
 
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