2015 Global Carbon Fiber Composites Market Report (2)
Source：ATA Carbon Fiber Tech., Co., Ltd 2016-09-23
3. The Global Carbon Fiber Supply
3.1. The Global Carbon Fiber Theoretical Capacity – by manufacturer
The data of the foreign manufacturers in this chart are from CCeV 2014 report. Acquiring ZOLTEK, Toray haveatotal production capacity of 44,700 tons of carbon fiber, holding 33.6% of the global capacity of 133,000 tons. After closing the American factory with its capacity of 2,400 tons, TOHO reduced its capacity from 13,900 tons to 11,500 tons in 2014. SGL had expanded production lines of additional 3,000 tons and became the second biggest producer in the world. We also added HCC Russia with a capacity of 1,700 tons (2,000 tons after optimization) and TKI Korea - a first manufacturer of carbon fiber in 1980s in Korea.TKI just resumed production years ago, adding a new capacity of 1,500 tons. As the largest Acrylonitrile producer, TKI is still not compared to Hyosung, butit has a huge potential because of his strong foundation on acrylonitrile.
Because CCeV is unfamiliar with Chinese carbon fiber companies, we make a supplement: The data in this report is authoritative and is expected to be taken into reference in CCeV report next year. Chinese theoretical capacity is calculated based on 12K fiber. The above production capacity account for the production lines is set up and has the capacity of production. Strictly speaking it should be defined as theoretical capacity. SGL acquired the Portuguese acrylic manufacturer Fisipe in 2014. CYTEC and DRALON – a Germany acrylic manufacturer achieved the strategic cooperation on low-cost and large-tow carbon fiber production. There is no big news on the significant progress during 2015.
Almost all the leading carbon fiber producers announced an expansion of the production capacity in 2014: Toray and HEXCEL increased their production capacity in Europe, Mitsubishi added a another production line of 3,000 tons in America, CYTEC had double its production capacity, and SGL also had a further increase in America. The capacity expansion may be finished by 2016, which will be shown in 2017 report.
3.2. The Global Carbon Fiber Theoretical Capacity – by region (in thousand tons)
Total amount: 135,200 tons
The total capacity of 125,000 tons from CCev 2015 report will increase to 135,200 tons with the increments of China and Russia
The three Japanese carbon fiber manufacturers have their production bases in Asia, Europe and North America, HEXCEL in America and Europe, SGL in Europe (including Spain, UK and German) and America, ZOLTEK (acquired by Toray) in Mexico and Hungary. The industrial distribution of these leading carbon fiber producers has the critical impact on the carbon fiber production capability of a country or region.
Addition to Europe, America and Japan, the countries and regions: China, Taiwan, Korea and Turkey also have the technological base and manufacturing capacity to produce carbon fiber.
According to our calculation, with the total production capacity of 23,800 tons, China has taken the 3rd place in terms of the global CF capacity. It is the aggregation of Chinese 23 carbon fiber companies’ capacities. It is a new concept. I will elaborate it in details in the chapter of “Chinese Carbon Fiber Marker”.
4. Chinese Carbon Fiber Market
4.1. Chinese Demand for Carbon Fiber - by year
Based on China Customs Export reports, we have updated the data of 2014 report.
The estimated Taiwan demand of 1,000 to 1,500 tons is not shown in this chart. We include the demand from the mainland China only.
There was rapid increase in 2013. We analyzed the data carefully and came to the conclusion that it is a centralized uplift after several years of market cultivation.
The average annual growth rate of 12% is applied from 2015 to 2020. This assumption is based on the fact that: The sector of Sports & Leisure (represented by bicycle) keeps the growing momentum; The sector of Wind Turbines, TPI Yancheng, VESTAS Tianjin and other Chinese component producers, will also witness a rapid growth. We hope Chinese Wind Turbines companies be able to penetrate to the global market in the near future.
4.2. Chinese Demand for Carbon Fiber – by origin
Total amount: 16,789 tons
Please note that “FABRIC & PP” means carbon fabric and prepreg. Korea is accounted here because of Toray’s 4,700 tons of carbon fiber production capacity and further processing located in Korea. The fabric and prepreg are made in Korea, but their fibers come from Toray.
Total amount: $457,191 thousand
Let’s analyze several sets of data by the country of origin:
The carbon fibers exported from Toray Japan and its subsidiaries in Korea are 7,400 tons. It is equal to 44% of China market. The 25.6% of the imported materials are in the form of fabric and prepreg. China still have is a great appetite to import high-end fiber, applications, and other basic composite material.
VESTAS Tianjin and PPI Yancheng consume approximated 900 tons large-tow carbon fibers. Most of them are imported from ZOLTEK Hungarian factory.
The 4,000 tons of carbon fibers come from Formosa Plastics and AKSA. 1,400 tons come from CCGC, 1,100 tons come from the other 3 to 4 Chinese carbon fiber manufacturers. Therefore, only 4 to 5 Chinese carbon fiber companies out of total 23 companies are capable to capture the domestic market share (special sales not included). It is a brutal reality that Chinese carbon fiber industry is not able to compete against the foreign manufacturers and provide sufficient supply to satisfy the domestic market.
4.3. Chinese Demand for Carbon Fiber – by province
Total amount: 16,789 tons
China CF demand by city-Top 10（Ton）
Carbon fiber composites industry is highly concentrated by province. There is no so much carbon fiber consumption in Beijing. The above listed demand comes from the agency of DOWAKSA – Hengtian. In China the major carbon fiber composite manufacturers are located in Guangdong, Shanghai, Fujian, Shandong, Jiangsu and Tianjin. The combined demand from Guangdong and Fujian is 7,000 tons, which is 41% of China gross demand.
4 out of Top 10 cities with the greatest demand are located in Guangdong province. For sure, the heavy investment in Guangdong province from Taiwanese Sport & Leisure companies has a direct impact on the ranking.
Total amount: $457,191thousand
China CF demand by city-Top 10（1,000USD）
4.4. Chinese Demand for Carbon Fiber – by application
Total amount: 16,800 tons
The above chart refers to the previous report. There is no major change in the market structure, except for a new segment of “Wind Turbines”.
The segment “Sport & Leisure” generates 60% of national carbon fiber revenues. In the past two years, bicycle is undoubtedly the fastest growth of sports equipment. Besides the traditional factories invested by Taiwanese, lots of Chinese domestic companies, such as XDX Shenzhen, Taishan Sports and ZGL Jiangsu, have been entering the industry of composite bicycle.
Wind blades certainly will take advantage of carbon fiber’s high modulus if its price is comparable to glass fiber’s price. ZOLTEK fiber has got a big market share due to its low cost. The fiber demand is 18,000 ton in the segment of “Wind Turbines”. It is undoubtedly appealing to the global customers if China can supply 40-60K large-tow carbon fiber at or under $10/kg.
To the segment of “Automobile”, it is unnecessary to consider if carbon fiber should be used in automobile industry or not. Automobile is a huge industry with high industry civilization and talent concentration. The carbon fiber composites companies should establish relations with automobile enterprises and automobile part suppliers from a global automobile supply chain perspective. The customers will knock at our door when we are capable to successfully produce large-tow and low-cost carbon fiber in the near future.